Kwiveki yesibini ka-Okthobha, i-ICE cotton futures yavuka kuqala yaza yawa.Ikhontrakthi ephambili ngoDisemba ekugqibeleni ivalwe kwi-83.15 cents, phantsi kweesenti ze-1.08 ukusuka kwiveki edlulileyo.Indawo ephantsi kakhulu kwiseshoni yayiyi-82 cent.Ngo-Oktobha, ukuhla kwamaxabiso ekotoni kwanciphisa kakhulu.Imarike ivavanye ngokuphindaphindiweyo i-low yangaphambili ye-82.54 cent, engekawa phantsi ngempumelelo kweli nqanaba lenkxaso.
Uluntu lotyalo-mali lwangaphandle lukholelwa ukuba nangona i-CPI yase-US ngoSeptemba yayiphezulu kunokuba bekulindelwe, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba i-Federal Reserve iya kuqhubeka nokwandisa inzala ngamandla ngoNovemba, i-stock market yase-US iye yafumana enye yezona zihlandlo ezinkulu zosuku olunye kwimbali. oku kuthetha ukuba imarike inika ingqalelo kwi-inflation inxalenye ye-deflation.Ngokuguqulwa kwemarike yemasheya, imarike yempahla iya kuxhaswa ngokuthe ngcembe.Ngokombono wotyalo-mali, amaxabiso phantse zonke izinto zorhwebo sele ekwinqanaba eliphantsi.Abatyalomali basekhaya bakholelwa ukuba nangona ulindelo lokudodobala koqoqosho lwase-US luhlala lungaguquki, kuya kubakho ukunyuka kwexabiso lenzala kwixesha elizayo, kodwa imarike yenkomo yedola yaseMelika nayo idlule phantse iminyaka emibini, izibonelelo zayo eziphambili ziye zagaywa. , kwaye imarike kufuneka ilumkele izinga lenzala elibi linyuka nangaliphi na ixesha.Isizathu sokuwa kwamaxabiso ekotoni ngeli xesha kukuba i-Federal Reserve inyuse inzala, ibangela ukudodobala koqoqosho kunye nokuncipha kwemfuno.Nje ukuba idola ibonise iimpawu zokunyuka, ii-asethi ezinobungozi ziya kuzinza ngokuthe ngcembe.
Ngexesha elifanayo, ukunikezelwa kwe-USDA kunye ne-prediction yemfuno kwiveki edlulileyo nayo yayinomdla, kodwa amaxabiso ekotoni ayesaxhaswa kwi-82 cents, kwaye i-short-term trend ithande ukuba yi-horizontal consolidation.Okwangoku, nangona ukusetyenziswa kwekotoni kusancipha, kwaye ukubonelela kunye nemfuno idla ngokukhululeka kulo nyaka, ishishini langaphandle ngokubanzi likholelwa ukuba ixabiso langoku lisondele kwiindleko zokuvelisa, ngokuqwalasela ukunciphisa isivuno esikhulu se-cotton yaseMelika kulo nyaka, kwaye i-cotton ye-cotton iyancipha kakhulu. ixabiso lomqhaphu liye lahla i-5.5% kunyaka odlulileyo, ngelixa umbona kunye neembotyi zesoya ziye zanda i-27.8% kunye ne-14.6% ngokulandelanayo.Ngoko ke, akufanelekanga ukuba ube ne-bearish kakhulu malunga namaxabiso e-cotton kwixesha elizayo.Ngokutsho kweendaba zeshishini eUnited States, abalimi bomqhaphu kwezinye iindawo eziphambili zemveliso bacinga ukutyala iinkozo kunyaka ozayo ngenxa yokwahluka kwexabiso phakathi komqhaphu kunye nezityalo ezikhuphisanayo.
Ngexabiso lexesha elizayo eliwela ngaphantsi kweesenti ezingama-85, ezinye iindawo zokusila ezirhweba ngokuthe ngcembe zisebenzisa imathiriyeli ekrwada exabiso eliphezulu zaqala ngokufanelekileyo ukunyusa ukuthengwa kwazo, nangona ubuninzi bezinto bezisanqongophele.Ukususela kwingxelo yeCFTC, inani leentengo zekontrakthi ye-Call landa kakhulu kwiveki ephelileyo, kwaye ixabiso lekhontrakthi ngoDisemba linyuke ngaphezu kwezandla ze-3000, ebonisa ukuba i-textile mills ithathelwe ingqalelo i-ICE isondele kwi-80 cent, kufuphi nokulindela kwengqondo.Ngokunyuka komthamo wokurhweba kwindawo, kunyanzelekile ukuxhasa ixabiso.
Ngokutsho kolu hlalutyo lungentla, lixesha elibalulekileyo lokujonga ukuba imeko yemarike itshintshe.Imarike yexesha elifutshane inokungena ekuhlanganiseni, nokuba kukho indawo encinci yokuncipha.Kwiminyaka ephakathi kunye nasekupheleni konyaka, amaxabiso ekotoni anokuxhaswa ziimarike zangaphandle kunye nezinto ezinkulu.Ngokuhla kwamaxabiso kunye nokusetyenziswa kwe-inventri yemathiriyeli ekrwada, ixabiso lomzi-mveliso kunye nokuzaliswa rhoqo kuya kubuya ngokuthe ngcembe, kubonelela ukunyuka okuthile kwimarike ngexesha elithile.
Ixesha lokuposa: Oct-24-2022